Physicist says time is running out, Moore’s Law is ‘collapsing’

“A well-known theoretical physicist has taken direct aim at a key theory in the computer industry, saying Moore’s Law is collapsing,” Sharon Gaudin reports for Computerworld.
“Physicist Michio Kaku, a professor of theoretical physics at City University of New York, said in a videotaped interview on that time is running out on the 47-year-old law,” Gaudin reports. “‘In about 10 years or so, we will see the collapse of Moore’s Law,’ Kaku said. ‘In fact, we already see a slowing down of Moore’s Law. Computing power simply cannot maintain its rapid exponential rise using standard silicon technology.’”

Gaudin reports, “The prediction was made by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore in 1965. It holds that the number of transistors on a chip doubles about every two years and can be done inexpensively. Kaku, like so many scientists before him, said recently the two main problems that will derail Moore’s Law are heat and leakage. ‘That’s the reason why the age of silicon will eventually come to a close,’ he said. This is far from the first prediction that Moore’s Law is failing… Kaku said molecular computers hold promise but he sees ‘enormous problems’ with quantum computing and doesn’t expect it to really mature until the late 21st century.”

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