IDC’s latest iPad forecasts are too low

“The recent 2012 WW forecast for tablets from IDC which forecasts sales of 106MM units in 2012 with Apple’s iPad numbers at a little under 60MM has been widely picked up and republished across the internet,” Colin Crawford writes for Tech.pinions. “The report also predicted that Apple could lose dominant marketshare to the Android platform by 2015. Windows tablets do not figure in the IDC forecasts as currently IDC defines them as PCs.”
“While I’ve a lot of respect for IDC’s ability to identify key market trends, especially in the Enterprise IT market but I’m not convinced they have their finger on the pulse of the Apple iPad market nor Apple’s iOS strategy,” Crawford writes. “It appears that IDC has consistently under-estimated the iPad market since its launch and their recent forecasts seem to follow that pattern.”

Crawford writes, “Based on the historical sales growth and the launch of the new iPad it is hard to believe that Apple will sell less than 60MM units in 2012… I’m willing to wager my 2012 estimates of iPad will be closer to the mark than the IDC forecasts. For the record I predict Apple will sell over 1MM units on March 16th. It will sell close to 10MM new iPad units within the first 30 days of launch as it rolls out t in 37 countries and in 2012 the total sales of iPads will be in excess of 90MM.”


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